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Fate of 10,000 Pyongyang nuclear scientists up in the air
  来源:常德市某某食品机械运营部  更新时间:2024-10-05 18:32:00
North Korean scientists work at a nuclear facility in Yongbyun,<strong></strong> North Pyongan Province. / Korea Times file, screen capture from YTN
North Korean scientists work at a nuclear facility in Yongbyun, North Pyongan Province. / Korea Times file, screen capture from YTN

By Ko Dong-hwan

North Korea has taken to the road to complete denuclearization ― at least superficially ― after announcing it would demolish its nuclear test site in front of invited international media outlets.

However, while the communist state's unexpected step has raised expectations of peace across Northeast Asia, the objective will take longer than many have hoped because the future whereabouts of North Korean scientists ― the cerebral foundation behind North Korea's nuclear weapons ― remains a critical point as Pyongyang waits for the June summit with the U.S. and further meetings with leaders from other countries involved in the geopolitical issue.

Experts in Korea and other countries say that "dismantlement of intelligence" involving up to 10,000 scientists ― including 200 core leaders, 2,000 experts and 6,000 technicians ― is required along with the demise of test site in Punggye-ri scheduled for May 23-25.

But questions linger whether North Korean leader Kim Jong-un who, according to North Korean experts, considers the scientists "the state's last card," will agree to this.

When U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited North Korea in May and met Kim to discuss the summit, Washington asked Pyongyang to move the North Korean scientists overseas and destroy nuclear weapons program data to make sure North Korea carries out denuclearization most effectively, according to Asahi Shimbun on May 10.

The Donald Trump administration, insisting on a "permanent, verifiable and irreversible dismantling (PVID)," is concerned that as long as its scientists remain, Pyongyang could restart its nuclear program.

South Korean presidential office Cheong Wa Dae said Monday Pyongyang must "permanently dismantle its nuclear weapons or move the nuclear wastes to the third country." Seoul and Washington want the North to remove its nuclear waste material as part of any denuclearization.

Pompeo: US firms could invest in North Korea if it denuclearizes Pompeo: US firms could invest in North Korea if it denuclearizes 2018-05-14 07:56  |  North Korea John Bolton: US wants to take North Korean nukes to Tennessee John Bolton: US wants to take North Korean nukes to Tennessee 2018-05-14 10:32  |  North Korea North Korea to publicly blow up nuclear test site on May 23-25 North Korea to publicly blow up nuclear test site on May 23-25 2018-05-13 10:49  |  North Korea Why North Korea excludes Japan from onsite nuclear inspection Why North Korea excludes Japan from onsite nuclear inspection 2018-05-14 15:43  |  North Korea North Korea, US in talks over denuke roadmap North Korea, US in talks over denuke roadmap 2018-05-13 16:58  |  North Korea Analysts said Pyongyang could take advantage of its public efforts for PVID to attract foreign investment and boost the North's economy. If the North's key scientists are still on hand, it is feared Pyongyang could restart its nuclear program if not enough foreign capital flows in.

North Korean scientists work at a nuclear facility in Yongbyun, North Pyongan Province. / Korea Times file, screen capture from YTN
In this photo from Feb. 15, 2013, released by North Korean state mouthpiece Korean Central Television, leader Kim Jong-un gives a nuclear weapons scientist a clock bearing the name of previous leader Kim Jong-il. The presentation recognized the scientist's contribution to "the state's security and strong communism." / Korea Times file

"At the U.S.-Pyongyang summit, the primary issue will probably tackle moving the North Korean nuclear weapons, inter-continental ballistic missiles, uranium and other chemical ingredients needed for the nuclear program to overseas," said Chung Sung-jang, a senior researcher at the Sejong Institute, South Korea's leading think-tank and national security strategy researcher.

"Dealing with North Korean scientists will probably follow the primary issue. I think the two countries will take this matter more carefully and slowly."

History shows that controlling nuclear technologies necessitates ensuring that nuclear scientists do not use their expertise to produce weapons of mass destruction again.

The Nunn-Lugar Act, a cooperative threat reduction program based on the Soviet Nuclear Threat Reduction Act of 1991, found new jobs for 58,000 former weapon scientists and created about 580 peaceful high-tech jobs for nuclear scientists from the Soviet Union.

The case of Pakistani nuclear physicist Abdul Qadeer Khan shows that failing to rein in the experts may result in the global proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Throughout 1980-90s, Khan helped North Korea, Iran and Libya to produce nuclear weapons by handing over blueprints and parts required for realizing related technologies, including uranium enrichment. The Pakistan government charged him for his role in spreading nuclear weapons technology, and held him under house arrest from 2004 until 2009.

The U.S. secretly took more than 1,600 rocket scientists, engineers and technicians from post-Nazi Germany between 1945 and 1959. The migrants then provided the intelligence and expertise behind the U.S. space program in a race against the Soviet Union.

But in the case of Pyongyang, Jung played down the scientists' role.

"If it actually dismantles its nuclear facilities and moves its nuclear warheads and ICBMs overseas, North Korea most likely will be unable to restart the nuclear program even if the scientists remain there," he said.



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